KANSAS CITY, Mo. -- Gov. Bob Holden and state auditor Claire McCaskill are locked in a close race in the Democratic primary for governor, with a large percentage of voters still undecided, according to a poll.

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Poll Shows McCaskill, Holden In Dead Heat

McCaskill (pictured, left) had the support of 28 percent of those polled, and Holden got the backing of 26 percent.

The results, published Thursday, are within the margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points, meaning the candidates are too close to declare anyone the front-runner.

The poll, conducted for The Kansas City Star and television station KMBC, indicated 41 percent of respondents were undecided on whom they would support in the Aug. 3 primary.

The poll also indicated that more than half of Democrats and independents do not approve of Holden's job performance as governor. Such negatives traditionally mean trouble for an incumbent, even for a successful fund-raiser such as Holden.

"Frankly, it's not really surprising for us. Because we figured out a long time ago that there were serious problems in this state, and that Missourians really do not have a lot of confidence in the direction we're headed right now," McCaskill said.

George Connor, a Southwest Missouri State University political scientist, agreed. "Those numbers are a bad sign," he said.

The poll, conducted Jan. 20-25 by Market Data Specialists of Kansas City, surveyed 600 registered voters who said they planned to vote in next Tuesday's Democratic presidential primary.

Respondents included Democrats, independent voters and a number of Republicans who planned to vote in the Democratic primary. Missouri law allows anyone to ask for a Democratic or Republican ballot in the primary. The poll sample was designed to reflect voting patterns in Missouri counties for the 2000 Democratic presidential primary and those voting for Al Gore in the November 2000 presidential election.

Holden adviser Roy Temple said the results suggest "it's a complicated time to be governor."

"This is a battle-tested governor," Temple said. "He's had to do the job for 3.5 years, and he's taken some body blows for that." Referring to McCaskill, he added, "There's a certain advantage to being the person who hasn't had to withstand that situation."

Holden faced criticism beginning on his first day in office, when he threw a $1 million inaugural party that he had trouble paying off. Since then, he has faced constant budget troubles and an aggressive Republican majority in the Legislature.

McCaskill, a former Jackson County prosecutor now in her second term as state auditor, said the poll numbers didn't surprise her.

"I'm out talking with real Missourians every day," she said. "I know that Governor Holden has a serious crisis in terms of the way the people of Missouri view him as a leader."

She said Democrats in Missouri were beginning to look at their next candidate for governor in the same way many of them are evaluating which presidential candidate to support. They want a candidate who can win, she said.

The poll found that 54 percent of respondents said they were familiar with McCaskill.

Holden had the best standing in the St. Louis area, where the poll showed him leading with nearly 31 percentage points, four points more than McCaskill. In Kansas City, McCaskill had nearly 29 percentage points, a six-point advantage.

McCaskill had a seven-point advantage with women voters, while Holden led by five points with men.

The poll also suggested that Democratic primary voters are divided on Holden's call for higher taxes this year for public schools and social services. McCaskill has said she opposes a tax increase until the state demonstrates that it can better handle the public's money.

Asked if they supported Holden's plan, respondents split with 45 percent saying yes and an equal percentage saying no. Ten percent were undecided.